论文标题
加拿大安大略省CoVID-19传播的隔室模型的比较研究
A Comparative Study of Compartmental Models for COVID-19 Transmission in Ontario, Canada
论文作者
论文摘要
到2022年6月4日，加拿大安大略省确认的COVID-19案件数量超过130万。自2019年12月初次爆发以来，变异的出现刺激了Covid-19的病毒持续传播。因此，许多关注一直致力于跟踪和模拟Covid-19的Covid19的传播。隔室模型通常用于模仿流行病的传播机制，并且易于理解。但是，他们在现实环境中的性能需要进行更彻底的评估。在这项比较研究中，我们研究了五个隔间模型 - 现有的四个现有模型和我们提出的扩展模型 - 并分析了他们从2022年1月至2022年6月在安大略省的Covid-19传播的能力。
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached over 1.3 million in Ontario, Canada by June 4, 2022. The continued spread of the virus underlying COVID-19 has been spurred by the emergence of variants since the initial outbreak in December, 2019. Much attention has thus been devoted to tracking and modelling the transmission of COVID-19. Compartmental models are commonly used to mimic epidemic transmission mechanisms and are easy to understand. Their performance in real-world settings, however, needs to be more thoroughly assessed. In this comparative study, we examine five compartmental models -- four existing ones and an extended model that we propose -- and analyze their ability to describe COVID-19 transmission in Ontario from January 2022 to June 2022.
