论文标题
波动:稳定时间序列的动态误差界限预测
WaveBound: Dynamic Error Bounds for Stable Time Series Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
时间序列的预测已成为一项关键任务,因为它在交通,能源消耗,经济和金融和疾病分析等现实世界中的实用性很高。最近的基于深度学习的方法在时间序列预测中表现出色。尽管如此,由于时间序列数据的动态,深层网络仍然受到不稳定的培训和过度拟合的困扰。现实世界数据中出现的模式不一致,导致该模型被偏向特定模式,从而限制了概括。在这项工作中,我们介绍了有关训练损失的动态错误界限,以解决时间序列预测的过度拟合问题。因此,我们提出了一种称为波动的正则化方法,该方法估计了每次迭代时每个时间步骤和特征的训练损失的足够误差界限。通过允许模型减少对不可预测的数据的关注,波动稳定了训练过程,从而显着改善了概括。通过广泛的实验,我们表明波动始终在包括最新模型在内的较大边缘的现有模型上不断改善。
Time series forecasting has become a critical task due to its high practicality in real-world applications such as traffic, energy consumption, economics and finance, and disease analysis. Recent deep-learning-based approaches have shown remarkable success in time series forecasting. Nonetheless, due to the dynamics of time series data, deep networks still suffer from unstable training and overfitting. Inconsistent patterns appearing in real-world data lead the model to be biased to a particular pattern, thus limiting the generalization. In this work, we introduce the dynamic error bounds on training loss to address the overfitting issue in time series forecasting. Consequently, we propose a regularization method called WaveBound which estimates the adequate error bounds of training loss for each time step and feature at each iteration. By allowing the model to focus less on unpredictable data, WaveBound stabilizes the training process, thus significantly improving generalization. With the extensive experiments, we show that WaveBound consistently improves upon the existing models in large margins, including the state-of-the-art model.