论文标题

对苏门答腊地形对印度洋下游低级涡流发展的影响的扩展分析

Extended analysis of the effects of the Sumatra topography on downstream low-level vortex development over the Indian Ocean

论文作者

Ciesielski, Paul E., Johnson, Richard H.

论文摘要

Fine等。 (2016年,以下称F16)调查了苏门答腊岛以及马来半岛和爪哇的潜在作用,在印度洋(IO)中创建了地形引起的循环,这些循环随后发展成为热带气旋(TCS)。 F16将复杂的涡旋跟踪软件应用于2.5年的模型分析,发现海上大陆的地形特征下游的四个区域是低级气旋涡流(123/yr)的多产发生器。本研究通过对ERA5分析的10年(2008-2017)应用类似的方法来扩展F16的有限分析。尽管F16研究的2.5年期在涡旋产生方面略高于(8%)的活性比10年期高,但通常,F16的发现代表了长期记录,其中80%的脱离涡流发生,所有脱离的涡流都发生在热点地区的东部低水平(925 hpa)流动。对10年记录的进一步分析发现,当低级伊斯特利在海上大陆地区最强时,涡流计数在MJO期1附近最高。当苏门答腊以西的赤道附近存在低级西风时,在MJO第4阶段中发生了涡流计数的次要峰值。这表明,与MJO相关的苏门答腊冲击赤道的低水平西风飙升有助于唤醒涡流的发展。虽然四个热点区域上涡流创世纪的频率与风的年度周期密切相关,但表现出异常的纬向流动的周期会影响涡流计数。这在苏门答腊南端的该地区最明显,在异常的伊斯特利异常时期,在异常的狂欢期间,涡流计数高4倍。在该地区,正(负)ENSO和印度偶极子的条件驱动异常的伊斯特利(西风),这会影响涡旋形成率。

Fine et al. (2016, hereafter F16) investigated the potential role of Sumatra Island, as well as the Malay Peninsula and Java, in creating terrain-induced circulations over the Indian Ocean (IO) that subsequently develop into tropical cyclones (TCs). Applying sophisticated vortex tracking software to 2.5 yrs of model analyses, F16 found four regions downstream of topographic features in the Maritime Continent to be prolific generators of low-level cyclonic vortices (123/yr). This present study extends the limited analyses of F16 by applying a similar approach to 10 yrs (2008-2017) of ERA5 analyses. While the 2.5-yr period which F16 studied was slightly (8%) more active in terms of vortex production than the 10-yr period, in general the findings of F16 are representative of the longer-term record with 80% of all shed vortices occurring with easterly low-level (925 hPa) flow over the hotspot regions. Additional analysis of the 10-yr record found that vortex counts are highest near MJO phase 1 when low-level easterlies are strongest over the maritime continent region. A secondary peak in vortex counts occurs during MJO phase 4 when low-level westerlies were present near the equator west of Sumatra. This suggests that low-level westerly surges on the equator impinging on Sumatra associated with the MJO contribute to an increase in wake vortex development. While the frequency of vortex genesis over the four hotspot regions is strongly tied to the annual cycle of winds, periods with anomalous zonal flow are shown to impact vortex counts. This is most apparent in the region off the southern tip of Sumatra where vortex counts were 4 times higher during periods of anomalous easterlies compared to periods with anomalous westerlies. In this region positive (negative) ENSO and Indian-Ocean Dipole conditions drive anomalous easterlies (westerlies) which impact vortex formation rates.

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