论文标题

优先采样下的地统计模型的确切贝叶斯推断

Exact Bayesian Inference for Geostatistical Models under Preferential Sampling

论文作者

da Silva, Douglas Mateus, Gamerman, Dani

论文摘要

优先采样是地统计学中的一个共同特征,并且在根据研究现象的信息中选择要采样的位置时发生。在这种情况下,点模型通常被用作位置分布的概率定律。但是,点过程可能性的分析性棘手性阻止了其直接计算。非参数模型规范中的许多贝叶斯(和非拜拜西亚)方法通过基于近似的方法来解决这一难度。这些近似值涉及难以量化的误差,并且可能导致推理偏差。本文提出了一种在不需要模型近似的情况下对此设置执行精确贝叶斯推断的方法。提出了对传统模型的质量变化,以规避可能性的可能性。此更改可以使用增强模型策略。关于贝叶斯对点模型模型的推断的最新工作可以适应地统计学设置,并使计算障碍性为提出的方法的精确推断。然后可以从增强模型的联合后验分布获得模型参数的估计和在未采样位置的响应预测。模拟研究表明,在各种优惠性情况下,提出的模型质量良好。在对实际数据集的分析中说明了我们的方法的性能,并与基于近似的方法进行了有利的比较。本文以有关拟议方法的扩展和改进的评论结束。

Preferential sampling is a common feature in geostatistics and occurs when the locations to be sampled are chosen based on information about the phenomena under study. In this case, point pattern models are commonly used as the probability law for the distribution of the locations. However, analytic intractability of the point process likelihood prevents its direct calculation. Many Bayesian (and non-Bayesian) approaches in non-parametric model specifications handle this difficulty with approximation-based methods. These approximations involve errors that are difficult to quantify and can lead to biased inference. This paper presents an approach for performing exact Bayesian inference for this setting without the need for model approximation. A qualitatively minor change on the traditional model is proposed to circumvent the likelihood intractability. This change enables the use of an augmented model strategy. Recent work on Bayesian inference for point pattern models can be adapted to the geostatistics setting and renders computational tractability for exact inference for the proposed methodology. Estimation of model parameters and prediction of the response at unsampled locations can then be obtained from the joint posterior distribution of the augmented model. Simulated studies showed good quality of the proposed model for estimation and prediction in a variety of preferentiality scenarios. The performance of our approach is illustrated in the analysis of real datasets and compares favourably against approximation-based approaches. The paper is concluded with comments regarding extensions of and improvements to the proposed methodology.

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