论文标题

中欧的非平稳大规模降水统计

Non-Stationary Large-Scale Statistics of Precipitation Extremes in Central Europe

论文作者

Fauer, Felix S., Rust, Henning W.

论文摘要

极端降水随着时间的推移显示非平稳行为,但也与其他大型变量相比。尽管这种效果经常被忽略,但我们提出了一个模型,包括北大西洋振荡,时间,表面温度和阻塞指数的影响。该模型具有使用年度最大值以及季节性最大值的灵活性,以适合广义的极值设置。为了进一步提高不同积累持续时间的数据使用效率最大值,以便可以提供不同时间尺度的极端信息。我们的模型接受了各个站点数据的培训,其时间分辨率从一分钟到一天中的一分钟不等。使用逐步的BIC模型选择选择模型,并用交叉验证的分位数技能指数进行验证。验证表明,新模型的性能比没有大规模信息的参考模型更好。此外,新模型可以深入了解大规模变量对极端降水的影响。结果表明,自1950年以来所有季节以来,极端降水的可能性随时间增加。极端的高概率与夏季的阻塞情况和冬季温度呈正相关。但是,它们与冬季和夏季温度的阻塞情况呈负相关。

Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time, surface temperature and a blocking index. The model features flexibility to use annual maxima as well as seasonal maxima to be fitted in a generalized extreme value setting. To further increase the efficiency of data usage maxima from different accumulation durations are aggregated so that information for extremes on different time scales can be provided. Our model is trained to individual station data with temporal resolutions ranging from one minute to one day across Germany. The models are selected with a stepwise BIC model selection and verified with a cross-validated quantile skill index. The verification shows that the new model performs better than a reference model without large scale information. Also, the new model enables insights into the effect of large scale variables on extreme precipitation. Results suggest that the probability of extreme precipitation increases with time since 1950 in all seasons. High probabilities of extremes are positively correlated with blocking situations in summer and with temperature in winter. However, they are negatively correlated with blocking situations in winter and temperature in summer.

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