论文标题
俄罗斯石油价格冲击的宏观经济表现
Macroeconomic performance of oil price shocks in Russia
论文作者
论文摘要
石油价格波动严重影响了石油过渡和进口国的经济体。高油价可以通过增加外币流入来使石油出口商受益；但是，经济可能会遭受制造业的减弱，并且随着国内货币的欣赏，该国的价格竞争力造成了重大趋势。我们研究了从2004年第1季度到2021年第三季度的油价波动及其对俄罗斯宏观经济指标的影响，尤其是工业生产，汇率，通货膨胀和利率。我们评估近年来俄罗斯宏观经济变量是否对石油价格波动有反应。 VAR模型的结果证实，货币渠道对石油价格冲击的反应比财政渠道更敏感。关于石油价格影响的财政渠道，工业生产对石油价格冲击非常重要。至于货币渠道，较高的石油价格波动质量正在给俄罗斯卢布施加压力，通货膨胀和利率基本上是对石油价格冲击的基本上的。
Oil price fluctuations severely impact the economies of both oil-exporting and importing countries. High oil prices can benefit oil exporters by increasing foreign currency inflow; however, an economy can suffer from a weakening of the manufacturing sectors and experience a significant downtrend in the country's price competitiveness as the domestic currency appreciates. We investigate the oil price fluctuations from Q1, 2004 to Q3, 2021 and their impact on the Russian macroeconomic indicators, particularly industrial production, exchange rate, inflation and interest rates. We assess whether and how much the Russian macroeconomic variables have been responsive to the oil price fluctuations in recent years. The outcomes from VAR model confirm that the monetary channel is more responsive to oil price shocks than the fiscal one. Regarding fiscal channel of the oil price impact, industrial production is strongly pro-cyclical to oil price shocks. As for the monetary channel, higher oil price volatility is pressuring the Russian ruble, inflation and interest rates are substantially counter-cyclical to oil price shocks.
