论文标题
乌克兰的贫困，失业和流离失所：战后三个月
Poverty, Unemployment and Displacement in Ukraine: three months into the war
论文作者
论文摘要
本文确定了全面克里姆林宫侵略对全面战争三个月后乌克兰社会经济成果的因果影响。首先，2022年2月24日之后的强迫迁移与失业率增加7.5％的风险有关。其次，差异差异的回归表明，在没有高等教育的地面女性战斗的地区中，面临9.6-9.9％的分数，较高的风险没有足够的食物。最后，在有和没有接受高等教育的男性以及没有高等教育的男性的情况下，在地面攻击女性的情况下，更有可能在6.1-6.9％，4.2-4.2-4.7％和6.5-6.6％的地方失业。这种持续的性别差距在贫困和失业方面，即使高等教育对女性也没有保护，就呼吁采取政策行动。尽管可以通过更全面的调查获得更准确的结果，但本文提供了对战争对贫困，失业和内部移民影响的最初估计。
This paper identifies the causal effects of full-scale kremlin aggression on socio-economic outcomes in Ukraine three months into the full-scale war. First, forced migration after February 24th, 2022 is associated with an elevated risk of becoming unemployed by 7.5% points. Second, difference-in-difference regressions show that in regions with fighting on the ground females without a higher education face a 9.6-9.9% points higher risk of not having enough money for food. Finally, in the regions subject to ground attack females with and without a higher education, as well as males without a higher education are more likely to become unemployed by 6.1-6.9%, 4.2-4.7% and 6.5-6.6% points correspondingly. This persistent gender gap in poverty and unemployment, when even higher education is not protective for females, calls for policy action. While more accurate results may obtain with more comprehensive surveys, this paper provides a remarkably robust initial estimate of the war's effects on poverty, unemployment and internal migration.
