论文标题

测试气候政策中的自由骑士假设

Testing the free-rider hypothesis in climate policy

论文作者

Schmidt, Robert C., Drupp, Moritz, Nesje, Frikk, Hoegen, Hendrik

论文摘要

自由骑行被广泛认为是有效气候政策的关键障碍。在有关非同伴气候政策和气候合作的游戏理论文献中,自由骑士假设无处不在。然而,自由骑士假设尚未在气候政策环境中进行经验检验。在理论模型的帮助下,我们证明,如果自由骑行是全球气候政策的主要驱动力,那么应该有明显的国家规模效应:世界人口中占有较大的国家,所有其他人都应该将更多的气候损害内化,从而将更多的气候损害化,从而设定更高的碳价格。我们使用这种理论预测来测试自由骑士假设。利用从2020年开始的排放加权碳价格的数据,同时控制着许多其他潜在的碳定价解释变量,我们发现自由骑士假设不能基于我们提出的标准在经验上得到支持。因此,其他问题对于解释气候政策的严格程度或许多国家缺乏问题可能更为重要。

Free-riding is widely perceived as a key obstacle for effective climate policy. In the game-theoretic literature on non-cooperative climate policy and on climate cooperation, the free-rider hypothesis is ubiquitous. Yet, the free-rider hypothesis has not been tested empirically in the climate policy context. With the help of a theoretical model, we demonstrate that if free-riding were the main driver of lax climate policies around the globe, then there should be a pronounced country-size effect: Countries with a larger share of the world's population should, all else equal, internalize more climate damages and thus set higher carbon prices. We use this theoretical prediction for testing the free-rider hypothesis empirically. Drawing on data on emission-weighted carbon prices from 2020, while controlling for a host of other potential explanatory variables of carbon pricing, we find that the free-rider hypothesis cannot be supported empirically, based on the criterion that we propose. Hence, other issues may be more important for explaining climate policy stringency or the lack thereof in many countries.

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