论文标题
设计最佳流行控制政策的反馈设计
Feedback Design for Devising Optimal Epidemic Control Policies
论文作者
论文摘要
本文提出了一种反馈设计，该设计有效地应对不确定性，以进行可靠的流行病监测和控制。有几种基于优化的方法通过利用过去报道的数据来估计流行模型的参数。但是，由于数据中可能存在噪声，因此估计的参数可能不准确，从而加剧了模型的不确定性。为了解决这个问题，我们提供了一个观察者设计，即使存在不确定的模型和嘈杂的测量，也能够对流行过程的强劲估计。然后，我们使用估计的模型和状态，通过最大程度地降低预测的成本功能来制定最佳控制策略。为了证明我们的方法的有效性，我们将其实施在经过改进的SIR流行模型上。结果表明，我们提出的方法在减轻流行病监测和控制中可能出现的不确定性方面有效。
This paper proposes a feedback design that effectively copes with uncertainties for reliable epidemic monitoring and control. There are several optimization-based methods to estimate the parameters of an epidemic model by utilizing past reported data. However, due to the possibility of noise in the data, the estimated parameters may not be accurate, thereby exacerbating the model uncertainty. To address this issue, we provide an observer design that enables robust state estimation of epidemic processes, even in the presence of uncertain models and noisy measurements. Using the estimated model and state, we then devise optimal control policies by minimizing a predicted cost functional. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, we implement it on a modified SIR epidemic model. The results show that our proposed method is efficient in mitigating the uncertainties that may arise in epidemic monitoring and control.
