论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Constrained Pure Exploration Multi-Armed Bandits with a Fixed Budget
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
We consider a constrained, pure exploration, stochastic multi-armed bandit formulation under a fixed budget. Each arm is associated with an unknown, possibly multi-dimensional distribution and is described by multiple attributes that are a function of this distribution. The aim is to optimize a particular attribute subject to user-defined constraints on the other attributes. This framework models applications such as financial portfolio optimization, where it is natural to perform risk-constrained maximization of mean return. We assume that the attributes can be estimated using samples from the arms' distributions and that these estimators satisfy suitable concentration inequalities. We propose an algorithm called \textsc{Constrained-SR} based on the Successive Rejects framework, which recommends an optimal arm and flags the instance as being feasible or infeasible. A key feature of this algorithm is that it is designed on the basis of an information theoretic lower bound for two-armed instances. We characterize an instance-dependent upper bound on the probability of error under \textsc{Constrained-SR}, that decays exponentially with respect to the budget. We further show that the associated decay rate is nearly optimal relative to an information theoretic lower bound in certain special cases.