论文标题
在多大程度上同义和有影响力的网络解释歌曲的受欢迎程度
To what extent homophily and influencer networks explain song popularity
论文作者
论文摘要
预测新歌曲的受欢迎程度已成为音乐界的标准实践,并为那些做得很好的人提供了比较优势。为此,为机器学习预测模型付出了巨大的努力。众所周知,在这些模型中,相关的预测参数包括固有的抒情和声学特征,外在因素(例如出版商的影响力和支持)以及艺术家的先前流行。人们对歌曲流行的社会组成部分的关注要少得多。最近,据报道,音乐同性恋的证据 - 与社会联系的人们也共享音乐品味的趋势。在这里,我们确定如何使用音乐同质来预测歌曲的流行。该研究基于Last.fm在线音乐平台的广泛数据集,我们可以从中提取听众及其听力模式之间的社交联系。为了量化网络在最终决定其受欢迎程度的歌曲传播中的重要性,我们使用音乐同质地设计了预测影响参数,并表明它将其包含在最先进的机器学习模型中增强了歌曲受欢迎程度的预测。影响参数将预测精度(TP/(TP+FN))提高了约50%,从0.14到0.21,表明音乐传播的社会成分至少与艺术家的受欢迎程度或类型的影响一样重要。
Forecasting the popularity of new songs has become a standard practice in the music industry and provides a comparative advantage for those that do it well. Considerable efforts were put into machine learning prediction models for that purpose. It is known that in these models, relevant predictive parameters include intrinsic lyrical and acoustic characteristics, extrinsic factors (e.g., publisher influence and support), and the previous popularity of the artists. Much less attention was given to the social components of the spreading of song popularity. Recently, evidence for musical homophily - the tendency that people who are socially linked also share musical tastes - was reported. Here we determine how musical homophily can be used to predict song popularity. The study is based on an extensive dataset from the last.fm online music platform from which we can extract social links between listeners and their listening patterns. To quantify the importance of networks in the spreading of songs that eventually determines their popularity, we use musical homophily to design a predictive influence parameter and show that its inclusion in state-of-the-art machine learning models enhances predictions of song popularity. The influence parameter improves the prediction precision (TP/(TP+FN)) by about 50% from 0.14 to 0.21, indicating that the social component in the spreading of music plays at least as significant a role as the artist's popularity or the impact of the genre.