论文标题

增强高斯流程动力学模型,具有知识传输的长期电池降低预测

Enhanced Gaussian Process Dynamical Models with Knowledge Transfer for Long-term Battery Degradation Forecasting

论文作者

Xing, Wei W., Zhang, Ziyang, Shah, Akeel A.

论文摘要

预测电池在电动汽车中的寿命或剩余使用寿命是一个危急挑战性的问题,近年来主要使用机器学习来预测重复骑行过程中健康状况的演变。为了提高预测性估计的准确性,尤其是在电池寿命的早期,许多算法都包含了电池管理系统收集的数据可获得的功能。除非将多个电池数据集用于直接预测寿命的直接预测,这对于球形公园的估计很有用,否则这种方法是不可行的,因为这些特征对于未来的周期不知道。在本文中,我们开发了一种高度精确的方法,可以使用修改的高斯工艺动态模型(GPDM)来克服此限制。我们引入了GPDM的内核版本,以在可观察到的潜在坐标之间具有更具表现力的协方差结构。我们将方法与转移学习相结合,以跟踪未来的健康状况到终止。该方法可以将功能纳入不同的物理可观察物,而无需其值超出可用数据的时间。转移学习用于使用来自类似电池的数据来改善超参数的学习。在三个数据集上,尤其是在电池寿命的早期阶段,证明了该方法超过现代基准测试算法的准确性和优势,包括高斯流程模型以及深卷积和经常性网络。

Predicting the end-of-life or remaining useful life of batteries in electric vehicles is a critical and challenging problem, predominantly approached in recent years using machine learning to predict the evolution of the state-of-health during repeated cycling. To improve the accuracy of predictive estimates, especially early in the battery lifetime, a number of algorithms have incorporated features that are available from data collected by battery management systems. Unless multiple battery data sets are used for a direct prediction of the end-of-life, which is useful for ball-park estimates, such an approach is infeasible since the features are not known for future cycles. In this paper, we develop a highly-accurate method that can overcome this limitation, by using a modified Gaussian process dynamical model (GPDM). We introduce a kernelised version of GPDM for a more expressive covariance structure between both the observable and latent coordinates. We combine the approach with transfer learning to track the future state-of-health up to end-of-life. The method can incorporate features as different physical observables, without requiring their values beyond the time up to which data is available. Transfer learning is used to improve learning of the hyperparameters using data from similar batteries. The accuracy and superiority of the approach over modern benchmarks algorithms including a Gaussian process model and deep convolutional and recurrent networks are demonstrated on three data sets, particularly at the early stages of the battery lifetime.

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