论文标题
泊松中无偏见的测试误差估计通过耦合的引导技术意味着问题
Unbiased Test Error Estimation in the Poisson Means Problem via Coupled Bootstrap Techniques
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
We propose a coupled bootstrap (CB) method for the test error of an arbitrary algorithm that estimates the mean in a Poisson sequence, often called the Poisson means problem. The idea behind our method is to generate two carefully-designed data vectors from the original data vector, by using synthetic binomial noise. One such vector acts as the training sample and the second acts as the test sample. To stabilize the test error estimate, we average this over multiple bootstrap B of the synthetic noise. A key property of the CB estimator is that it is unbiased for the test error in a Poisson problem where the original mean has been shrunken by a small factor, driven by the success probability $p$ in the binomial noise. Further, in the limit as $B \to \infty$ and $p \to 0$, we show that the CB estimator recovers a known unbiased estimator for test error based on Hudson's lemma, under no assumptions on the given algorithm for estimating the mean (in particular, no smoothness assumptions). Our methodology applies to two central loss functions that can be used to define test error: Poisson deviance and squared loss. Via a bias-variance decomposition, for each loss function, we analyze the effects of the binomial success probability and the number of bootstrap samples and on the accuracy of the estimator. We also investigate our method empirically across a variety of settings, using simulated as well as real data.