论文标题
21cmfish:Fisher-Matrix框架,用于从宇宙21 cm信号的快速参数预测
21cmfish: Fisher-matrix framework for fast parameter forecasts from the cosmic 21-cm signal
论文作者
论文摘要
早期宇宙中中性氢的21 cm信号将提供有关第一批恒星和星系的前所未有的信息。但是,提取此信息需要考虑许多未知的天体物理过程。半数字模拟是探索所述过程的庞大参数空间的关键。这些模拟使用近似技术,例如偏移集和扰动理论,以在流体动力和/或辐射转移模拟的计算成本的一部分中对播层间介质的3D演化进行建模。但是,探索第一个星系的巨大参数空间仍然可以在计算上很昂贵。在这里,我们介绍了21cmfish,这是一种用于半数模拟的Fisher-Matrix包装器21cmfast。 21CMFISH促进有效的参数预测,假设多变量高斯后部比MCMC方法比MCMC方法明显更高。我们的方法对以前的MCMC分析产生了可比的参数不确定性预测,但需要〜10 $^4 $ x少模拟。这可以快速地进行原型分析添加新物理和/或其他参数的方法。我们使用最大的天体物理参数空间为待办事项对HERA进行了预测,其中10个自由参数涵盖了人口II和III星形成。我们发现,可以测量第一个星系的X射线参数至次级精度,尽管它们是高度退化的,但人口II和III星系的恒星至中心的质量关系和电离光子逃逸分数可以限制为〜10%的精度(对数量)。使用主成分分析,我们发现HERA对人口II星系的电离逃逸分数和恒星至中心的质量分数最敏感。
The 21-cm signal from neutral hydrogen in the early universe will provide unprecedented information about the first stars and galaxies. Extracting this information, however, requires accounting for many unknown astrophysical processes. Semi-numerical simulations are key for exploring the vast parameter space of said processes. These simulations use approximate techniques such as excursion-set and perturbation theory to model the 3D evolution of the intergalactic medium, at a fraction of the computational cost of hydrodynamic and/or radiative transfer simulations. However, exploring the enormous parameter space of the first galaxies can still be computationally expensive. Here we introduce 21cmfish, a Fisher-matrix wrapper for the semi-numerical simulation 21cmFAST. 21cmfish facilitates efficient parameter forecasts, scaling to significantly higher dimensionalities than MCMC approaches, assuming a multi-variate Gaussian posterior. Our method produces comparable parameter uncertainty forecasts to previous MCMC analyses but requires ~10$^4$x fewer simulations. This enables a rapid way to prototype analyses adding new physics and/or additional parameters. We carry out a forecast for HERA using the largest astrophysical parameter space to-date, with 10 free parameters, spanning both population II and III star formation. We find X-ray parameters for the first galaxies could be measured to sub-percent precision, and, though they are highly degenerate, the stellar-to-halo mass relation and ionizing photon escape fraction for population II and III galaxies can be constrained to ~10% precision (logarithmic quantities). Using a principal component analysis we find HERA is most sensitive to the product of the ionizing escape fraction and the stellar-to-halo mass fraction for population II galaxies.