论文标题
增强弹性：基于模型的模拟
Enhancing Resilience: Model-based Simulations
论文作者
论文摘要
自几年以来，全球供应链（GSC）的脆弱性在历史上处于高水平。同时，混合威胁的景观正在扩大。新形式的混合威胁创造了不同类型的不确定性。本文旨在了解不确定事件的潜在后果，例如自然灾害，大流行病，混合和/或军事侵略 - 对GSC的弹性和鲁棒性。我们利用一种简约的供应链模型，分析了GSC的组织结构如何与不确定性相互作用，以及风险规避与模棱两可的规避，垂直整合与上游外包，韧性与效率的权衡如何在外部外部和集中式的GSC多样化策略之间进行楔子，以使外包效率与效率折衷。使用世界输入输出表来参数可扩展的数据模型，我们模拟了GSC的生存概率以及对供应链鲁棒性和弹性的影响。提出的基于模型的模拟提供了在单独最佳（分散）和社会最佳（集中的）GSC组织结构下的反弹性和鲁棒性政策选择的积极和规范效应的互操作和可比较的概念。
Since several years, the fragility of global supply chains (GSCs) is at historically high levels. In the same time, the landscape of hybrid threats is expanding; new forms of hybrid threats create different types of uncertainties. This paper aims to understand the potential consequences of uncertain events - like natural disasters, pandemics, hybrid and/or military aggression - on GSC resilience and robustness. Leveraging a parsimonious supply chain model, we analyse how the organisational structure of GSCs interacts with uncertainty, and how risk-aversion vs. ambiguity-aversion, vertical integration vs. upstream outsourcing, resilience vs. efficiency trade-offs drive a wedge between decentralised and centralised optimal GSC diversification strategies in presence of externalities. Parameterising the scalable data model with World-Input Output Tables, we simulate the survival probability of a GSC and implications for supply chain robustness and resilience. The presented model-based simulations provide an interoperable and directly comparable conceptualisation of positive and normative effects of counterfactual resilience and robustness policy choices under individually optimal (decentralised) and socially optimal (centralised) GSC organisation structures.
