ICS 27.16 CCS P 61 团体标准 T/CES 139—2022 光伏发电功率概率预测技术要求 Technical requirements for photovolta ic power probabilistic forecasting 2022-09-26 发布 2022-09-28 实施 中国电工技术学会 发布 全国团体标准信息平台 T/CES 139—2022 I 目 次 前言 ............................................................................................................................... .......................................II 引言 ............................................................................................................................... .......................................II 1 范围 ............................................................................................................................... ................................. 1 2 规范性引用文件 ............................................................................................................................... ............. 1 3 术语和定义 ............................................................................................................................... ..................... 1 4 基础数据要求 ............................................................................................................................... ................. 2 4.1 光伏发电站基本信息 ............................................................................................................................. 2 4.2 光伏发电站运行数据 ............................................................................................................................. 3 4.3 数值天气预报数据 ............................................................................................................................... .. 3 4.4 气象测量数据 ............................................................................................................................... .......... 4 4.5 数据校验 ............................................................................................................................... .................. 4 5 光伏发电功率概率预测模型 ........................................................................................................................ 4 5.1 预测模型通用要求 ............................................................................................................................... .. 4 5.2 超短期光伏发电功率概率预测 ............................................................................................................. 5 5.3 短期光伏发电功率概率预测 ................................................................................................................. 5 5.4 中期光伏发电功率概率预测 ................................................................................................................. 5 6 数据上报要求 ............................................................................................................................... ................. 5 6.1 光伏发电站运行数据上报 ..................................................................................................................... 5 6.2 实时气象测量数据上报 ......................................................................................................................... 5 6.3 气象预报数据上报 ............................................................................................................................... .. 5 6.4 超短期光伏发电功率概率预测数据上报 ............................................................................................. 5 6.5 短期光伏发电功率概率预测数据上报 ................................................................................................. 6 6.6 中期光伏发电功率概率预测数据上报 ................................................................................................. 6 7 预测评价 ............................................................................................................................... ......................... 6 7.1 评价指标 ............................................................................................................................... .................. 6 7.2 预测准确性要求 ................................................